Wednesday, June 07, 2017

I think there is climate change and some of it is man made, but some of the extreme predictions made by "experts" in the past were wildly inaccurate. Bad predictions are often made using static linear analysis, assuming things will continue in the future just like in the past without taking into account the world is dynamic - behavior changes and technology changes, Some predictions from the 1970s: Ecologist Kenneth Watt declared, “By the year 2000, if present trends continue, we will be using up crude oil at such a rate…that there won’t be any more crude oil." Harrison Brown, a scientist at the National Academy of Sciences, published a chart in Scientific American that looked at metal reserves and estimated the humanity would totally run out of copper shortly after 2000. Lead, zinc, tin, gold, and silver would be gone before 1990. Paul Ehrlich predicted in 1970 that “air pollution…is certainly going to take hundreds of thousands of lives in the next few years alone.” Ehrlich sketched a scenario in which 200,000 Americans would die in 1973 during “smog disasters” in New York and Los Angeles. Ehrlich sketched out his most alarmist scenario for the 1970 Earth Day issue of The Progressive, assuring readers that between 1980 and 1989, some 4 billion people, including 65 million Americans, would perish in the “Great Die-Off.”

June 07, 2017 at 02:57AM via Facebook